It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.  It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years. Here we speak to Martin Austin MBE, Managing Director of Derby-based Nimbus Disability, one of the country’s leading providers of disability-related advice and support to professional organisations, and the UK’s lead authority on accessible ticketing, which earned Nimbus The Queen’s Award for Innovation in 2022. Businesses who not only meet but exceed their legal obligations to disabled people have the opportunity to boost their ethical credentials and tap into the lucrative ‘purple pound’ which could be the difference in not just surviving but thriving in 2023. There is a growing understanding amongst businesses that disability, simply put, is good for business. Disabled People themselves have spending power in the UK of circa £80 billion and their households have a spending power of c.£249bn after housing costs. This spending power is heavily influenced by their perception of a business’s ability and willingness to work with disabled customers and employees. Then there is the opportunity to embrace wider influence on disabled people’s social circles and also on how a business is perceived locally and in the wider community. Working with disabled people is therefore no longer just a case of meeting legal obligations it’s an opportunity no one can afford to miss and my heartfelt hope is that businesses take the opportunity during these challenging times to assess how they can make a difference both to other people’s lives and the credibility of their own operations.

The latest KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs: Midlands survey saw permanent placements return to expansionary territory and temporary billings fall further midway through the final quarter of 2022. Wage inflation across the Midlands remained marked but softer than the rates recorded over much of the past 18 months. Temp staff availability continued to fall amid reports that candidates were seeking more job stability while candidates available for permanent roles increased for the first time since March 2021. The KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs: Midlands is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to around 100 recruitment and employment consultancies in the Midlands. Upturn in permanent placements resumes The seasonally adjusted Permanent Placements Index moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark in November, to signal a renewed increase in permanent staff appointments across the Midlands. That said, relative to the rates recorded over much of the past 18 months, the expansion in permanent staff placements was subdued. While some recruitment consultancies reported that there was a higher demand for permanent staff, others mentioned that economic uncertainty weighed upon hiring decisions. Led by London, three of the four monitored English regions registered a reduction in permanent staff appointments. The Midlands, meanwhile, bucked the wider trend recording a renewed upturn. Softer reduction in temp billings For the third month running, temp billings received by recruiters in the Midlands decreased in November. Anecdotal evidence suggested that the reduction in temporary billings was linked to economic uncertainty and client cautiousness. The pace of decline, however, was only mild and the weakest in the current sequence. A marked upturn in the South of England mainly drove the expansion in temp billings. The North of England and the Midlands, however, registered further downturns. November data signalled slowdowns in the rates of vacancy growth across the Midlands midway through the final quarter of 2022. Though still increasing sharply, the latest rise in permanent staff vacancies was the joint-softest since February 2021. Meanwhile, vacant positions for temporary staff rose at the slowest pace since January 2021. The upturns for both indices each remained weaker than their respective historical averages. First increase in permanent staff availability since March 2021 For the first time in 20 months, the number of candidates available for permanent roles across the Midlands increased midway through the final quarter, albeit only marginally. Anecdotal evidence suggested that the increase was in some cases linked to redundancies, amid economic tightening at firms, as well as candidates seeking to move roles in a bid to secure higher salaries. The downturn was led by the steepest reduction in the North of England since June. Meanwhile, the Midlands bucked the wider trend and was the only monitored English region to register an increase in permanent staff availability, albeit one that was only marginal. Temporary staff availability falls at the slowest pace in 20 months As has been the case since March 2021, the supply of temporary candidates in the Midlands fell in November. Surveyed recruiters frequently attributed the downturn to an increasing number of candidates who seek more stability in permanent placements. That said, the pace of decline was softer than in October and the slowest in 20 months. Three of the four monitored English regions registered drops in temp staff availability with the sharpest decline seen in London. Permanent salary inflation ticks up slightly November data signalled that salaries awarded to new permanent joiners in the Midlands once again rose. The pace of salary inflation, though slightly faster than in October, was the second-softest over the past year-and-a-half. Increasing wages were reportedly driven by general inflation and shortages for skilled labour. While all four monitored English regions reported higher permanent starting salaries, the Midlands recorded the sharpest increase and was the only region with a stronger rate of inflation than in October. Slowest rate of temp wage growth since April 2021 Recruiters based in the Midlands signalled a sustained rise in average hourly rates of pay for short-term staff in November. The rate of wage growth edged down to a 19-month low, dipping below its historical average. Where inflation was concerned, panel members mentioned staff shortages. The North of England recorded the quickest rise in temp pay while the South registered the slowest. Commenting on the latest survey results, Kate Holt, people consulting partner at KPMG UK, said: “Of particular note this month is the rise in permanent placements and starters’ salaries in the Midlands, in sharp contrast to the other three monitored English regions. “This reflects the combined effects of employers recognising that the state of the economy has increased candidate need for job security and additional benefits. However, we expect wage growth to start trending down in the months ahead as businesses start to focus on other factors. “Employers who are able to offer existing workers and candidates opportunities to upskill and reskill, rather than focusing solely on core pay, may well benefit most in this tight jobs market.” Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the REC, said: “This month’s data emphasises that while employers are moderately more cautious in the face of economic uncertainty, this is not yet a major slowdown in hiring. While permanent recruitment activity in the Midlands bucked the wider trend and increased, the rate of growth has slowed. “In contrast to the national trend, permanent staff availability increased for the first time since 2021 in the Midlands. From discussions with REC members, this is primarily the result of redundancies and candidates looking to move for higher salaries. “As the economic outlook weakens, we can expect to see falls from historic highs across our measures, but it is notable that pay and vacancies are still growing, although at a much lower rate. “A flatter period in the labour market is inevitable in this current economic climate, but demand is being supported by some major underlying factors, including labour shortages and technological change. “The main way to boost performance is to unlock growth by businesses putting their people planning first, as a strategic way to enhance productivity. Government can help through skills and immigration reform. Boosting growth is the only way to ensure a prosperous country for all of us.”

The Government has confirmed its commitment to supporting devolution for Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Derby, and Nottingham. Speaking remotely at a conference about devolution at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Nottingham, Lee Rowley MP, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State in the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “We all know there is more that can be done and the opportunities to do more are ones we should seriously consider. We have an unrivalled geographical position in our country, brilliant transport links, and fantastic entrepreneurial companies. “We are serious about wanting to empower the East Midlands.” The event was also attended by the leaders of Derbyshire County Council, Nottinghamshire County Council, Derby City Council, and Nottingham City Council as well as other local political leaders, and representatives for universities and colleges, emergency services, businesses, and voluntary and community groups. Devolution proposals for Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Derby, and Nottingham were discussed, and everyone was encouraged to have their say by taking part in the consultation, which is open until Monday 9 January 2023. The conference included breakout sessions looking at specific aspects of the plans in more detail, including what devolution would mean for housing, transport, skills and adult education, and the environment. Craig Parkin, chief fire officer at Nottinghamshire Fire and Rescue Service, said: “I think it’s hugely important. The public and the communities of both the counties and cities rely on their blue light services, and we need to know and be involved in the architecture and the design of the future of public services and how we serve our communities. “I think it is great to see so many people from across both cities and counties here. People appear to be having a free opinion and a free voice about it, and that’s got to bring a lot of richness together and we need to be part of that.” Natalie Gasson-McKinley, development manager for the Federation of Small Businesses, said: “The devolution bid and consultation is a fantastic opportunity for everyone across Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire to hear about the plans that are happening but also to help shape those plans. “The scale of the opportunity is huge, done right. There are lots of decisions that are made centrally around adult education budgets, around infrastructure, transport, so to have the opportunity for local people and local decision makers to shape those things and to really impact them is a really once in their lifetime opportunity. “For small businesses in particular, the opportunity to shape their local economic environment is crucial. There’s so much happening to businesses at the moment. It is a really tough and challenging time. So to have decision makers placed locally, who can really impact and make positive change, is everything to those businesses right now. “I’d encourage businesses, communities, anybody really to get involved with the consultation and to speak to people about what’s happening, because it is really important to share those views about what you want to see.” It is proposed that the new Combined County Authority, which would include representatives from existing local councils, and would cover Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Derby, and Nottingham, would be known as the East Midlands Combined County Authority (EMCCA). The EMCCA would be led by an elected mayor representing both counties and both cities. The devolution consultation opened on 14 November and is due to close on 9 January 2023. It’s a chance for everyone in the area to have their say about the devolution proposals, and it is open to residents, businesses, community and voluntary groups, and other organisations. An in-person devolution information event is taking place at Nottingham Council House on Wednesday 21 December for people without access or with limited access to the internet, with no need to book. Residents can also find out more about the devolution proposals at an online public engagement meeting on Wednesday 4 January. People can join with no need to book, by visiting www.eastmidlandsdevolution.co.uk/have-your-say The leaders of Derbyshire County Council, Nottinghamshire County Council, Derby City Council, and Nottingham City Council all signed up to work on a devolution deal on 30 August this year at Rolls Royce in Derby, following an announcement from the Government that a package of new powers and funding, worth £1.14 billion, were available for the area. Since August the councils have been working on a more detailed proposal for how devolution would work in our area, which is the basis of the consultation. The four councils agreed to go ahead with a public consultation in the autumn, so everyone has the chance to give their views on the plans. Barry Lewis, leader of Derbyshire County Council, said: “Devolution is about getting a better deal for Derbyshire and the East Midlands and achieving a fair share for our region. It will bring us more money and mean we can make more meaningful decisions here, rather than in London. “This deal will bring more and better jobs and opportunities for training, improve the local economy, result in better transport and housing, and accelerate our route to Net Zero. I encourage everyone to take part in the consultation and give us their views on devolution. “A devolution deal, should it be agreed, would be the beginning, not the end. We’re determined to build on this deal over time, as other areas have done.” Ben Bradley MP, leader of Nottinghamshire County Council, said: “It’s great news that we’re moving forward with devolution plans for Nottinghamshire and the wider area. I’m really pleased that we’re making progress with this. “Devolution can bring real benefits for local people, as it has done in other parts of the country. It will mean more funding for our region, and the opportunity to have more meaningful decisions made here, near the people they affect, rather than in London, so they can be better tailored to local needs. “This is an opportunity to create jobs, boost our economy, enhance transport, build more and better homes, improve our environment, and more, and we need to grab it with both hands. I don’t want our area to miss out on a chance to improve things for everyone who lives and works here. “Devolution can help us be more effective locally, make better use of public money, and most importantly, improve people’s lives. It would lay the groundwork for us to build on in the future, to benefit future generations. “I’d encourage everyone to take part in the consultation and give us their views on the devolution deal.” Chris Poulter, leader of Derby City Council, said: “The East Midlands has long been overlooked and held back compared to other areas of the country. The cities and counties in our region should have a bigger voice, and this devolution deal would give us the influence, funding, and powers that we deserve. “The investment in this deal will bring with it many opportunities. We could see more jobs, better transport and housing, an enhanced greener environment, and more value for money of services provided for our people. “The proposals that we’re consulting on are just the beginning, and we’re determined to build on it over time. I would encourage everyone to give us their views on the deal by taking part in the consultation.” David Mellen, leader of Nottingham City Council, said: “This deal has the potential to make a significant difference and local people would see the real benefits from the investment with more and better jobs, housing, training and much more. “For too long this region hasn’t had the investment it needed and deserves – by working on a deal we can start to address this, but this is just the start, and I will make sure that we get our fair share and make the most of this funding. “Importantly the deal would give us more control over our own area, where local people would have a say in the region’s priorities rather than decisions made in London. I look forward to hearing people’s views on the deal when the consultation launches.” Devolution would provide the region with a guaranteed income stream of £38 million per year over a 30-year period, and would cover around 2.2 million people, making it one of the biggest in the country. If the plans go ahead, it will mean a new regional mayor and it would create the first of a new type of combined county authority for the two counties and cities, which requires new legislation from central government. The new elected regional mayor, like those who are already in place in other areas, would represent the whole area. The role of the mayor would be to look at major issues affecting the whole region, give the area a bigger voice, and take advantage of local knowledge and expertise. As well as the £1.14 billion, devolution plans include an extra £16 million for new homes on brownfield land, and control over a range of budgets like the Adult Education Budget, which could be better tailored to the needs of people in our communities. Devolution would mean that a future mayor and combined authority could:

• Work towards Net Zero and cleaner air with new low carbon homes, retrofit existing houses with external wall insulation, promote the use of renewable energy, and protect and enhance green spaces, like areas for wildlife and green verges.
• Build on the region’s existing knowledge and expertise in green technology and promote the growth of a future low carbon economy by investing in related skills training at colleges and other training facilities.
• Set up and coordinate smart integrated ticketing and enhanced concessionary fares schemes.
• Work with Homes England to build more affordable homes, by using new powers to buy land and housing (with district and borough council consent).
• Enhance the region’s economy by developing new commercial space to maximise opportunities.
• Work with national government on initiatives to address homelessness, domestic abuse, community safety, social mobility, and support for young people.
• Take advantage of economies of scale by using combined and devolved budgets to deliver more value for taxpayers and more cost-efficient services.

The four councils sent initial proposals to negotiate a combined devolution deal back in March 2022, after being named as pathfinder areas by the Government in February and then being invited to apply for a devolution deal. The councils have been working with the Government to develop details of the deal, alongside discussions with district and borough councils, businesses, and other stakeholders. If the devolution deal is formally approved, the Government would pass legislation bringing a new combined authority for the East Midlands into existence. The first election for a regional mayor for Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham, and Nottinghamshire, would be in May 2024. The regional mayor would lead the new combined county authority, which would also include representatives from local councils, with decision making powers and resources moving from London to the East Midlands. Local businesses would also have a voice, as well as other organisations. The devolution deal would not mean scrapping or merging local councils, which would all continue to exist as they do now and would still be responsible for most public services in the area. The mayor and combined authority would instead focus on wider issues like transport, regeneration, and employment across both cities and counties.

Leicester-based Custodian Property Income REIT has hailed a “strong performance” in its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2022. Portfolio valuation increased to £685.4m during the period (31 March 2022: £665.2m, 2021: £551.9m), due to an £8.4m uplift from asset management initiatives and income growth, £47.8m of asset recycling within the portfolio and capex, and a £36.1m valuation decrease driven by current investor and market sentiment around the UK’s economic outlook. Meanwhile the firm invested £52.7m in seven property acquisitions, targeting smaller regional property with a strong income focus and potential for asset management, and made a £4.7m profit from the disposal of three properties for a combined consideration of £14.9m. Since the period end a further three properties have been sold for a consideration of £13.5m. David Hunter, chairman of Custodian Property Income REIT, said: “The company’s well-diversified investment portfolio has shown its resilience during the period and this diversification has mitigated the risks posed by volatility in real estate investment markets. In addition, the company’s conservative balance sheet and its longer-term fixed rate debt profile have provided insulation against the challenge of rising interest rates in the short to medium term. “Our dividend remains fully covered and, in line with our objectives, I was very pleased to announce 2.75p of aggregate dividends (2021: 2.5p) for the period. The Board expects to continue to pay quarterly dividends per share of 1.375p to achieve a target dividend per share for the year ending 31 March 2023 of no less than 5.5p. “Over the last five years, shareholders have received an income return of 29.7p per share, or an annual average of 5.93p per share, always fully covered by earnings, supported by both a diverse, smaller regional property strategy and a conservative gearing policy. There is depth in occupational demand and latent rental growth in the portfolio which offers the prospect of growth for existing shareholders, despite the current difficult economic circumstances.”