East Midlands set to be one of only two regions to gain ground on London’s economy by 2025
The East Midlands is one of only two English regions forecast to close the economic gap to London by 2025 when compared to pre-pandemic performance, according to EY’s latest Regional Economic Forecast.
The East Midlands economy, measured by Gross Value Added (GVA), is expected to be 9.5% larger in 2025 than it was in 2019 – the biggest increase among all English regions, ahead of the South West (9%) and London (8.9%). The UK’s GVA is forecast to have grown 8.3% relative to its 2019 performance by 2025.
The East Midland’s robust forecast is in part thanks to the region’s resilience during the initial stages of the pandemic, with the region’s GVA declining by just 1.7% between 2019 and 2021. By contrast, UK GVA fell 3% over the same period, while London’s GVA fell 3.6%.
GVA and employment in the region are forecast to grow at a similar pace to the rest of the UK from 2022 to 2025, with average annual growth rates of 2.7% and 1% respectively.
However, the report sets out the scale of the task needed to level up the UK economy. While the research shows the pandemic has helped to narrow the UK’s regional economic divide, the gap between London and the rest of the country it set to grow again during the post-pandemic recovery. The capital is on course to regain lost ground to the East Midlands and South West beyond 2025 too.
The report also forecasts that the economic gap between cities and towns will continue to widen, with England’s major cities expected to grow 2.9% per year by 2025, compared to forecast growth of 2.6% in towns.
Simon O’Neill, office managing partner for EY in the Midlands, said: “The East Midlands economy has undergone a period of transformation in recent years, moving away from more traditional manufacturing to focus more on other sectors, including administrative support and services. While COVID-19 has undoubtedly had a significant economic impact on the region, the East Midlands’ mix of sectors has helped it weather the last few years better than other areas – and will set up the region up for a good recovery too.
“The region is set to see strong growth in professional services and health, as well as a robust recovery in administrative and support services and the transport sector. The East Midlands has long been a professional services, science and transport hub – and the region’s laboratories and vast delivery and fulfilment centres have become all the more important over the course of the pandemic.
“However, with the data showing London recovering from the pandemic more quickly than much of the rest of the of the country, action is needed to ensure places like the East Midlands don’t get left behind in the long-term. Greater flexibility on where people work, aided by the pandemic, could help things. Focusing on what attracts people and businesses to a region, attracting the right mix of sectors and job opportunities, and tackling issues that affect quality of life will be key to taking advantage of this.
“As previous EY research has shown, the UK’s Net Zero and levelling up ambitions go hand-in-hand: the billions of pounds of investment required to reach Net Zero present a golden opportunity to transform not only the environmental sustainability of the UK economy, but its regional balance too. The manufacturing and utilities sectors, for example, are key to the Net Zero agenda – and they are vital to regional economies.”
East Midlands locations set for average GVA growth
Between 2022 and 2025, GVA in Nottingham is expected to expand by 2.8% per year – the only regional location above the average for the East Midlands (2.7%). Growth in the city is forecast to be led by activity in the administrative & support service and human health & social work sectors. Employment in the city is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.2% per year between 2022 and 2025.
Locations in the East Midlands are expected to see GVA growth between 2.4% and 2.8% over the next three years. After Nottingham, the fastest growing regional locations are expected to be Leicester (2.7%) Mansfield (2.7%), Boston (2.5%) and Derby (2.4%).
According to EY’s analysis, the West Midlands, North West and London economies were the most affected by the initial impact of the pandemic, with 2021 seeing the West Midlands economy recover to just 94.5% of its 2019 size, the North West’s economy reaching 96.1% of its 2019 size, and London recovering to 96.4%. By contrast, the Yorkshire and the Humber economy had reached 98.8% of its pre-pandemic size by the end of 2021, while the North East was at 98.5%.
Relative to their pre-pandemic GVA levels, the West Midlands (up 5.3%), North West (6.8%), and North East (7.9%) are expected to grow at the slowest pace.
The East Midlands is one of only four UK regions expected to see working age populations grow by 2025, alongside London, the East and South East.
Sector mix key to long-term recovery
Across the UK, service and city centre activities are expected to be the fastest growing between 2022 and 2025, with accommodation and food service expected to improve its GVA by 8.6% per year, followed by other services (up 6.7%), administrative and support services (up 5.5%), and arts and entertainment (up 5.4%). The transportation and storage sector is expected to grow 3.8% per year. By contrast, manufacturing is one of the sectors expected to undershoot the overall annual UK GVA growth (2.8%), with 1.7% growth forecast.
Simon O’Neill added: “These sector mixes will dictate the longer-term recovery. The North East’s public sector helped the region’s economy weather the pandemic but may mean slower post-pandemic growth. Conversely, city-friendly sectors like digital, science and technology, and services will eventually bounce back, taking places like London and Manchester with them after a slow start.”
Rohan Malik, EY’s UK&I managing partner markets & accounts, concludes: “Long-term ambitions and sustained, coordinated action are needed to balance growth across the country while ensuring that ‘levelling up’ isn’t simply moving activity elsewhere at London’s expense. The right actions now will bear fruit eventually, but policymakers need to be in this for the long haul.”
East Midlands business confidence dips but outlook remains positive
Business confidence in the East Midlands fell four points during January to 33%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Lloyds Bank.
Companies in the East Midlands reported lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down 13 points to 27%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up three points to 38%, this gives a headline confidence reading of 33%.
The Business Barometer, which questions 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.
A net balance of 35% of businesses in the region expect to increase staff levels over the next year, down one point on December’s reading.
Overall UK business confidence remained steady in January, dropping just one point from December’s reading of 40% to 39%. Firms remained positive about their future trading prospects, despite a two-point dip month-on-month to 41%, and were optimistic about the economy overall, reporting a reading of 38%, up one point on December’s result. The net balance of businesses planning to create new jobs in the next twelve months decreased marginally by four points to 29%.
Every UK nation and region maintained a positive overall confidence reading in January, with four reporting a higher reading than last month. Yorkshire and the Humber (up 13 points to 48%), Scotland (up 13 points to 37%), the West Midlands (up nine points to 39%) and the South West (up eight points to 37%) all had stronger confidence readings month-on-month, with Yorkshire and the Humber now the most optimistic region.
Amanda Dorel, regional director for the East Midlands at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Despite the small dip, overall business confidence remains steady in the East Midlands and there is much for the region’s firms to be optimistic about. The end of Plan B restrictions should boost consumer confidence and create new opportunities for hospitality and leisure businesses who’ll see more footfall as people return to offices.
“It’s also promising to see hiring intentions remain strong, which will undoubtedly benefit the local economy in the long-term. We will be helping East Midlands businesses to capitalise on the opportunities that come their way as they lay the foundations for future growth.”
Industry sector performance was mixed during January with confidence among manufacturers increasing by three points to 43%, reaching its highest level for three months due to an easing of supply chain pressures. Retail confidence also rose (up one point to 44%) while confidence among firms in IT/communications remains particularly strong at 72%.
The impact of Omicron over the festive period meant the service sector extended its recent run of modest decreases in January, dropping one point to 38%. Positively, hospitality has recovered some of December’s decline, rising from 6% to 38%.
Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “January’s survey shows a continued resilience with minimal fluctuation as economic optimism remains at a historically strong level.
“A larger decline in confidence was potentially prevented by the reduction in Covid infection rates from early January and the prospects of the easing of restrictions across the UK.
“However, businesses remain cautious about the pandemic and are facing into challenges from rising cost pressures although many are raising their prices in response.”
9 smart ways small business owners can minimise time spent on admin
Admin can take up a lot of time for small business owners. You may not yet have the funds to hire additional administrative staff, meaning you have to take on a lot of the admin work yourself. At the same time, you need to ensure that you’re giving your business the time and attention it needs to thrive.
Fortunately, there are plenty of ways to minimise the time that admin takes in the day to day running of your company. This article will explore some of the most innovative ways to stay on top of admin and run your business more efficiently.
- Set Aside Dedicated Time For Admin
- Consider Outsourcing
- Automate Simple But Time-Consuming Processes
- Choose A Reputable HR Management Platform
- Keep Meticulous Records
- Review Your Processes Regularly
- Create A Productive Workspace
- Don’t Allow Basic Tasks To Build Up
- Get On The Cloud
One of Leicester’s newest stores reveals business success despite year of uncertainty
CarShop Express Leicester, which is situated on Blackbird Road and opened its doors to the public at the start of May, has announced that – despite being a completely new concept store for the used car retailer and opening amidst a global pandemic – it has had an extremely successful year.
The store was an exciting development in the area, due to it being the UK’s first ‘Express’ car store. What this means is, unlike CarShop’s main stores which have large showrooms, expansive forecourts and different colleagues to help with every stage of the car buying journey, an Express store is a bit different. It has a small and friendly feel and its colleagues are all ‘Express Specialists’ who help customers through the whole car buying journey, from start to finish – making for a really personalised experience.
“Of course, we were a bit apprehensive to start with”, said Michele Williams, the store’s Branch Manager, “Would people know we were a car store without the hundreds of cars sitting outside on the forecourt? But as soon as we opened our doors, those worries were quickly put to rest.”
The main feature emphasised at CarShop Express Leicester seems to be convenience – customers can tailor their car buying journey depending on what they prefer. This could be browsing CarShop’s entire range of makes and models online and then transferring their favourite to the Leicester store for a test-drive, or collection, or it could be coming into the store at a time that suits them to speak to an Express Specialist about their options and the best finance method for them.
And the concept seems to have gone down a treat amongst local residents – with its sales figures increasing by 60% in the last four months, compared to the four months before that.
Feedback provided on Google Reviews also seems to be overwhelmingly positive when it comes to customer service. In fact, it has gained itself an impressive 4.9 stars out of 5, with feedback including: “Kyle stayed back an hour and a half after closing to answer all our questions without rushing us. This experience is normally so daunting but I felt so relaxed”, and “It was easy and straightforward with no fuss, from viewing the car, test-drive and paperwork, I was then driving away in my new car in just over an hour. Everything was explained step-by-step too”.
It has also already won prestigious trade awards, including at the Car Dealer’s Used Car Awards 2021.
“I’m thrilled to see it succeeding”, said Michele, “It’s a concept I really believe in, knowing that not everyone feels the need to walk between rows and rows of cars before deciding they’ve got the right one. Some are happy enough to browse online, in their own time – especially knowing they can take the car for a test-drive and return it if it doesn’t end up being the right one for them.”
The store has also made huge strides in helping the local community too – having launched its ongoing partnership with Help the Homeless Leicester a few months ago. This partnership involves CarShop donating £1 for every customer who buys a car from the store through its Pink Coin Scheme.
Its team members are also currently collecting their old hats, scarves, gloves and anything else that might help, to donate to those on the streets this winter.
NTU business support programme to boost Ashfield economy by £19m over 10 years
Businesses will benefit from a £3.8 million support programme delivered by Nottingham Trent University (NTU) that has been designed to boost the local economy by almost £19 million over the next 10 years.
The Enterprising Ashfield project – funded by the Government’s Towns Fund – will provide businesses in the Sutton and Kirkby areas with direct access to university expertise and facilities. It also provides support for local residents and local employees to enhance their skills.
The project builds on the ongoing commitment of NTU to the Ashfield and Mansfield areas as well as the University’s strong track record of delivering growth, innovation and skills programmes to small and medium sized enterprises successfully. It will deliver support designed specifically to meet the needs and challenges facing Ashfield residents and businesses.
Delivered over the next 4 years, Enterprising Ashfield consists of the following project strands:
- A ‘Headstart’ programme – offering intensive coaching and mentoring to potential and existing entrepreneurs; equipping them with the skills and knowledge to establish, sustain and grow a successful business
- ‘Breakthrough’, ‘Accelerator’ and ‘UpScaler’ programmes – offering support to businesses at different stages of growth; enabling them to increase their productivity, access new markets, develop new products, and/or implement a plan for growth
- Access to graduate talent on short-term placements in local businesses to support projects and growth plans
- Collaboration opportunities with the University to undertake specific research & development activities using NTU’s world-leading facilities and academic expertise
- Access to flexibly delivered short courses; designed to meet local skills gaps and boost employment prospects.
2022 Business Predictions: James Pinchbeck, Partner, Streets Chartered Accountants
It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.
It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years.
Here we speak to James Pinchbeck, Partner at Streets Chartered Accountants.
At the time of writing this we are over halfway through the first month of 2022, therefore on looking at new year predictions it is perhaps worth looking at what the Chinese New Year might hold. Starting on 1st February 2022 is the Chinese zodiac year of the Tiger, symbolised by strength, exorcising evil and braveness.
In the face of the challenges individuals and businesses face over the year ahead the characteristics of the Tiger will probably mean 2022 will bode well. Certainly, the brave stand to do well if they embrace the opportunities that present themselves as we move from living with a pandemic to an endemic. These include the chance to re-imagine hospitality and leisure, create an exciting environment and conditions for returner workers and to retain staff, through to looking at innovative ways of addressing the productivity gap, skills and labour shortages. For leaders, managers and staff there is likely to be a real appetite to do this differently.
In the face of rising costs, not least energy and an increasing focus on net zero, the year ahead should be a great time to focus on business inputs but also looking to how a more sustainable and environmentally friendly approach is at the heart of strategic thinking.
Whilst not advocating a baby boom, the year of the Tiger is deemed to be a good year to give birth, it certainly is likely to see a boom in new business starts with growing numbers switching from employment to self-employment, along with those looking to bring new ideas, products and services to market – many inspired by experiences and challenges faced over the last 18 months to two years.
Finally, not least for those ardent networkers, those born in the year of the Tiger are believed to be good at socialising. Therefore, as we all start to get out and about more, you will be probably be able to recognise the Tigers!
2022 Business Predictions: Paul Morris, development director at St James Securities
It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.
It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years.
Here we speak to Paul Morris, development director at St James Securities.
With the Omicron variant now hopefully largely under control and the booster campaign picking up speed, there are finally signs we will be able to return to some sort of normality in the coming months.
Unfortunately, though, 2022 is set to be another challenging year for the economy, with a cost of living crisis and record levels of inflation. Inflation hit the 30-year high of 5.4% in December and is likely to hit the 7% mark in April. It should then start to fall back and by the end of 2022, it shouldn’t be far off the government’s 2% target again.
The modest increase in bank interest rates from the historic low of 0.1% to 0.25% is likely to be followed by another this year, probably stabilising at 0.5%, which should help bring inflation down.
I am confident the property market will improve this year; Omicron hasn’t had the devastating effect that many predicted, and we must now find a way of living with Covid-19.
I expect to see a continued increase in confidence in a number of sectors, particularly ‘beds’ and ‘sheds.’ The Buy to Rent and student accommodation markets remain strong, and I think we will see this sector continue to grow even stronger over the next few years.
The ‘sheds’ distribution market is still very busy with demand and rents continuing to climb; however yields are the sharpest they’ve ever been and are likely to plateau.
I think the retail sector will start to improve during the course of this year in good locations, particularly areas where an integrated approach by Councils, BIDs and landlords are working together to create ambitious masterplans and public realm improvements.
This doesn’t mean we won’t see further casualties, although I believe these are more likely to be in the hospitality sector, which has suffered massively as a result of lockdowns and restrictions.
In the corporate market it is good to see businesses consulting properly with staff to adopt an effective back to the office strategy, with working from home evolving and becoming part of the fabric of the workplace.
Going forwards employers will need to make it attractive for employees to come back to the office and they will need to be best in class and offer a great working environment in order to attract the best calibre of staff. More importantly, businesses will need to look seriously at their long term carbon footprint and green credentials.
Government has confirmed that by 2030 non-domestic rented buildings will need to meet EPC Band B, which is a substantial raising of the bar and will, I hope, result in an overall improvement in the overall quality of accommodation.
UK car production sees worst year since 1956
UK car production in 2021 fell -6.7% to only 859,575 units, according to figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the worst total since 1956. Output was 61,353 less than 2020, which itself was badly affected by coronavirus lockdowns, and -34.0% below pre-pandemic 2019.
Despite this, British car factories produced a record number of battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), turning out almost a quarter of a million (224,011) of these zero and ultra-low emission vehicles, representing more than one-in-four (26.1%) of all cars made.
The overall poor performance can be attributed to several factors, most of them direct consequences of the pandemic. The shortage of semiconductors, a critical component in modern car manufacturing, was the principal cause of the decline, with factories having to reduce or even pause production while awaiting parts whose supply has been heavily constrained by the global pandemic.
Manufacturers also wrestled with staff shortages arising from the need to self-isolate and depressed demand with car showrooms closed for months due to lockdowns and despite the success of ‘click and collect’ services. There were also non-Covid issues behind this fall, most notably the closure of a major UK car plant in July, which accounted for around a quarter of the annual decline.
More positively, the shift to electrified vehicle manufacture continued apace as BEV production surged 72.0%, while hybrids rose 16.4%, as the UK industry – like the market – transforms into a low and, ultimately, zero-carbon industry.
Global exports continued to be the foundation for UK car manufacturing, with some eight-in-ten cars made being shipped overseas. Although annual production for overseas markets declined -5.8% to 705,826 units, volumes for the domestic market declined even more steeply, down -10.6% to 153,749.
The European Union remained the UK’s largest market by some considerable distance, increasing to 55.0% of exports, from 53.5%, and representing 388,249 units (-3.0% vs 2020), despite frictions and costs arising from the new trading arrangements. While automotive businesses were as well prepared as they could be, an SMMT member survey in April revealed some nine-in-ten (91%) firms were spending more time and resource managing UK/EU trade than in 2020.
Shipments to several other major global markets also fell, with the US, our second ranked export destination, down -10.5% and Japan, our fourth largest export market, down -36.1%. China, in third place, fared better, with exports up 0.6% to 57,356 units, reflecting strong market conditions in the country and demand for iconic British performance, luxury and premium car brands. Exports to Canada, Australia and South Korea, however, declined, -5.3%, -31.1% and -29.7% respectively.
Despite the dismal overall performance, there were significant developments that give the industry increased confidence. Following the avoidance of ‘no deal’ and the signing of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), publicly announced investment for the industry reached a potential £4.9 billion in 2021, the highest total since 2013. This included vital investment announcements in Ellesmere Port, Halewood, Norfolk, Sunderland and Surrey.
Moreover, a significant proportion of the announced investments was in support of electrified vehicles, with the expansion of existing facilities in the North-East and the proposed development of a new battery gigafactory in the West Midlands. The latter intention represents around half (£2.5 billion) of the total investment sum publicly announced in 2021. Realising such investments will be vital as the UK automotive manufacturing sector is expected to need at least 60 GWh of gigafactory battery capacity by 2030 if it is to remain globally competitive as trading requirements tighten.
This investment must also be matched by a package of measures to ensure manufacturing competitiveness across the supply chain, notably in training and reskilling, technology transition and urgent action to address the UK’s increasingly high energy costs.
Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: “2021 was another incredibly difficult year for UK car manufacturing, one of the worst since the Second World War which lays bare the exposure of the sector to structural and, especially, Covid-related impacts. Despite this miserable year, there is optimism.
“With Brexit uncertainty largely overcome with the TCA deal, investments have been unleashed, most of which will help transform the sector to its zero-emission future.
“This is a vote of global confidence in the UK but must be matched by a commitment to our long-term competitiveness; support for the supply chain in overcoming parts shortages, help with skills and training and, most urgently, measures to mitigate the escalating energy costs which are threatening viability.”
The latest independent production outlook for 2022 forecasts UK car production to increase to more than one million units, representing a 19.7% uplift on the 2021 total, despite the loss of production in Swindon. With favourable conditions, including an end to the global chip shortage, new models coming on stream and the avoidance of additional trade barriers, car production could continue to climb and reach 1.1 million in 2025, with further growth beyond.
EMR are certified as one of the UK’s top employers for the sixth consecutive year
EMR has been announced as one of the UK’s Top Employers for a sixth consecutive year.
Organisations certified as Top Employers are recognised for their commitment to providing the very best working environment for employees and helping them to develop and progress.
Despite the challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic brought throughout 2020/21, EMR was measured against the same high standards as previous years, benchmarking company practices against other top performers across the country.
Kate Holden, HR Director for EMR said “We are delighted to be one of the few companies to be officially recognised as a leading employer in the UK.
“At EMR we are committed to attracting and developing an excellent and diverse workforce.
“Working with Top Employers and being accredited for the sixth consecutive year is a real credit to the organisation and our people, showcasing all of the hard work that happens behind the scenes in helping us to achieve this standard and to equip our people with the right skills for a sustainable future.”
David Plink, CEO for Top Employers Institute said: “Reflecting on the demanding year that has, like the year before it, impacted organisations across the world, EMR has continued to show that it prioritises maintaining excellent people practices in the workplace. They continue to meet the challenges of the changing world of work while working tirelessly to make a positive impact on the lives of their workforce. We are pleased to celebrate and applaud the organisations that have been certified as Top Employers in their respective countries this year.”
East Midlands Airport to host virtual jobs fair
As part of its drive to recruit 175 customer-facing roles within its security, car parks and passenger services teams, East Midlands Airport (EMA) is holding a virtual jobs fair on Tuesday 1 February, 10am – 1pm.
Three million passengers are predicted to use the airport this year as consumer confidence builds following a relaxation of travel restrictions.
Filling vacant security officer roles is the airport’s immediate priority as new starters need to undergo compliance training, while other vacancies will be advertised in the coming weeks.
Customer-facing roles such as those being currently recruited to are critical not only to ensuring safety and compliance but also for making people’s experience of travel a positive one. These roles are ‘front-of-house’ and are ideal for those who enjoy interacting with customers and working as part of a team. The hours offered are also ideal for job seekers looking for a positive work-life balance from a shift pattern.
The virtual jobs fair will allow people to find out more about what it’s like to work at EMA. Airport colleagues will be joined by representatives of other organisations based across the airport site who are also recruiting.
As well as joining a friendly and supportive team, airport employees enjoy many benefits including:
- free on-site parking while on duty
- retail discounts and savings
- 24-hour employee assistance programme
- MAG pension scheme which doubles your contribution
- discounts on some bus services
- discounts on MAG products such as Escape Lounges and holiday parking at airports
- career growth opportunities
