A new study has calculated the long-term economic impact of Covid-19 on city centres and found that as the shift towards working from home moves businesses to suburban areas, city centres stand to lose £3 billion in 2022. Economists from the University of Nottingham, the University of Sheffield, and the University of Birmingham, assessed how often people will be working from home in the next year compared to before the pandemic, and what effect that will have on the revenue generated by city centres. Their research, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, is published in a paper titled “Covid reallocation of spending: The effect of remote working on the retail and hospitality sector”. The study uses data from a new Working From Home Survey developed by Professor Paul Mizen, Professor Gianni De Fraja, Gregory Thwaites and Shivani Taneja at the University of Nottingham, with the University of Chicago and Stanford University. The academics found that on average, people will be working roughly one day a week more at home than they were before the pandemic, which could have huge long-term consequences for the hospitality and retail industries, which have already faced a tumultuous 18 months. It is expected that the extra day of working from home will be a permanent shift as a result of the pandemic, which has seen everyone’s lives change dramatically since the first national lockdown in March 2021. As people spend more time in suburban areas due to working from home, they will not be providing the economic benefits to city centres that office workers previously would, such as going to coffee shops, buying lunch, or going shopping after work. These shifts could see roughly 77,000 people who work in the hospitality and retail industries be forced to either relocate to jobs in suburbs or lose their jobs completely. Not only could these changes lead to tens of thousands of low income workers losing their jobs, but it could make inequalities between rich and poor areas even worse – the study found that, as people who are more affluent are more likely to be able to work from home, the money being lost by city centre shops is more likely to be recuperated in higher income suburbs. Paul Mizen, Professor of Monetary Economics at the University of Nottingham said: “Using a new Working From Home survey developed at the University of Nottingham in collaboration with the University of Chicago and Stanford University, our team from Nottingham, Birmingham and Sheffield universities has tracked changes in commuting patterns and working from home trends during the last year to show that about £3 billion in annual spending could leave city centres as a result of working from home. “This illustrates how retail and hospitality sectors will be affected by shifts in work location as a result of a longer term structural change, particularly in larger cities dependent on commuting trade.” The Nottingham academics have also been tracking the opinions of business through the Decision Maker Panel, set up with the Bank of England and Stanford University, providing direct insight into business expectations and uncertainty, for example Covid-19 and Brexit. The panel draws information from Financial Officers in 3,000 UK companies operating in a broad range of industries and is designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. Shivani Taneja, co-author and Research Fellow in the School of Economics at the University of Nottingham said: “Attitudes towards working from home have changed since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic1 . Employees are now travelling less frequently to the offices in the city centres and more time is spent in suburban locations, resulting in major implications for city centres. “Our results suggest that the hospitality and retail sector will be significantly affected, with about 77,000 workers potentially losing their jobs.” Dr Jesse Matheson, co-author from the University of Sheffield’s Department of Economics, said: “We estimate that about £3 billion in annual spending will leave city centres as a result of working from home. This decrease will be concentrated in a few very dense centres; for example, the City of London will experience a spending decrease of 31.6 per cent, and central Birmingham will experience a decrease of 8 per cent. “Some of this spending will be realised in the residential areas where these workers live, but some may be lost altogether. As suburban neighbourhoods lack the density of city centres, many retail and hospitality businesses will find it is not profitable to relocate. “Workers in retail and hospitality may also find that demand has shifted to locations to which commuting is too difficult, which means that supply may not be able to keep up with demand.” As a result of this shift to working from home – or the effect of ‘zoomshock’ as the academics coined the phenomena – the report argues that city centres may have to transform themselves in order to stay relevant, by becoming more residential instead of retail focused. The research follows a previous study by Dr Matheson which found that how quickly households or businesses recover from the economic impact of Covid-19 depends on where you live and what you do, as wealthier areas will be quicker to recover. Dr Matheson says there is work to do in finding out if all of the lost £3 billion will be spent elsewhere or lost altogether. He said: “This money may be recuperated in the higher income suburbs, but in a lot of places working from home means people are more spread out, which isn’t good business for retail business like coffee shops, who require high density areas for business. So there is a risk this revenue could be lost from the hospitality and retail sectors forever.”

Greg Simpson, founder of Press for Attention PR and the PR and Communications Ambassador for the IoD in Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, details why your charitable press releases are being ignored. In the spirit of giving, I wanted to share something that will hopefully make a big difference to your business next year but ONLY if you are looking to make a big difference to someone else’s. Sound fair? We live in an age of Greenwashing, Sportswashing and frankly, a huge degree of cynicism. We also live in a time where huge numbers of people are struggling and charitable donations are at critical levels. So what are forward-thinking businesses to do? Well, do something for a start! However…don’t do just anything! Remember, it doesn’t have to be monetary. Businesses are increasingly realising that Corporate Social Responsibility, or ‘CSR’ for short, can be a major asset when it comes to positioning positive public relations for their brand. There are various elements they can weave into their marketing mix around sustainability and ethical practice but the classic tactic that is normally the easiest to implement centres around supporting a charity. It is laudable and often a cause close to the heart of the business owner or the wider team and can make a major impact, especially on smaller local charities. However, people often ask me why their efforts are ‘ignored’ by the media. Let me explain why this might happen. I represent two charities and a non-profit. In order to get their message out I do something that may sound somewhat counter-intuitive…I don’t talk about them. Actually, let me be more precise here, I don’t FOCUS on them as the story. It is a tactic I use for many of my professional services clients too. The story is rarely about them, it is about who they are advising. Consider this with a charity. The story is not about the charity, it is about who they are helping. You need to find the human element in your story. Or indeed the animal but you get my drift. You are Spielberg NOT Cruise – tell the story Far too many charity angles begin with ‘Acme Corp, which is committed to XYZ causes and sustainable business jargon has raised some funds for Laudable Cause’. This is well-intentioned BUT it is focusing on the ‘good egg’ factor too much. Instead, it should be ‘Laudable Cause receives funding boost thanks to Acme Corp’. Spot the difference? We normally hear all about Acme Corp but very little about Laudable Cause. This is where it all falls down. The story needs to focus on the beneficiaries and how their life changes, not tick marketing messages and CSR boxes. I cannot possibly go into each and every case here but here’s some more hints and tips as to why your charitable efforts may not be making headlines.

1. The cause is not local and you are pitching to local media
2. The story is too focused on you
3. The picture/photo you offered up is utterly uninspiring
4. The amount raised is nothing to really write home about, however hard you all worked
5. You haven’t explained what difference it will make
6. The charity isn’t quoted or in the photo
7. The same cause was in the press last week from your rival, ACME Inc

We are nearing the end of the year and thoughts are turning to plans for 2022. If I came into your business right now, one of the first questions I would ask is what good causes you support. I do not do this to try and curry favour in the media. I do it because it starts out as an internal marketing campaign, a way to create and foster a positive culture. So if you aren’t doing something already, have a think about what you could be doing or better still, ask your team. Someone will be hugely keen to support something and will most likely want to take the lead and run the project for you. Your job is to give them the tools and resources to help them help others.   A former business journalist, Greg Simpson is the author of The Small Business Guide to PR and has been recognised as one of the UK’s top 5 PR consultants, having set up Press for Attention PR in 2008. He has worked for FTSE 100 firms, charities and start-ups and conducted press conferences with Sir Richard Branson and James Caan. His background ensures a deep understanding of every facet of a successful PR campaign – from a journalist’s, client’s, and consultant’s perspective.

It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.  It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years. Here we speak to Chris Hobson, director of policy and external affairs at East Midlands Chamber. The watchword for 2022 is uncertainty as businesses grapple with a growing list of issues – ranging from capacity constraints and skills shortages to price rises and tightening cashflow – which are now putting a drag on what was previously looking like a strong economic recovery. Our latest Quarterly Economic Survey for Q4 2021 showed every single economic indicator had dipped compared to the previous quarter, so the warning lights are flashing. At the same time, there are positive signs for our region. The freeport at East Midlands Airport will be a magnet for international inward investment as we seek to establish ourselves at the centre of the UK’s post-Brexit global trading relationship, hopefully backed by new trade deals in the next 12 months. While we were deeply disappointed with the Government’s recent decision to descope the HS2 Eastern Leg, which we are concerned will place us at a structural disadvantage to the West of our country, there are opportunities in the Integrated Rail Plan that our region must maximise by working together. We should learn more about the East Midlands Development Corporation’s vision for key strategic sites, most notably the future of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station, which could thrust the region to the heart of the energy innovation that will guide the UK to a net zero future. The ESG (environmental, social and governance) agenda is rising in prominence for businesses and they should be ready to demonstrate how they’re embracing sustainability. This is one policy area where there is a clear direction but we will need our decision-makers to bring more certainty across the entire policy landscape over the next 12 months – giving businesses the confidence they need to invest and rebuild our economy.

The latest KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs: Midlands highlighted a record rise in both permanent starting salaries and hourly wages for temporary staff in November, amid a combination of sharp and sustained growth in demand for staff and a further marked deterioration in the supply of candidates. A further steep expansion in permanent placements was also recorded, and one that was the sharpest since June’s series record. Meanwhile, growth in temporary billings eased to the joint-softest since May. The report is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to questionnaires sent to around 100 recruitment and employment consultancies in the Midlands. Further rapid rise in permanent placements The rate of growth in permanent placements across the Midlands quickened midway through the fourth quarter of the year. The increase was rapid overall and the sharpest seen since June’s survey record. Recruitment consultancies indicated that placements had risen following stronger demand from clients for permanent staff amid sustained shortages. The increase in permanent placements in the Midlands was slightly quicker than that seen at the UK level. November data pointed to a continued increase in temporary billings in the Midlands. That said, the rate of expansion slowed from October and was the joint-softest since May (equal with September). Some respondents suggested that while clients were more confident, there were fewer applications for temporary positions. Growth in temp billings was also the slowest of the four monitored English regions. Permanent vacancies increased at a marked pace in the Midlands during November, though the rate of increase eased for the third month running. As a result, permanent vacancies increased at the softest pace since March. Demand for temporary staff also rose steeply in the latest survey period. Yet, the pace of expansion softened from October to the slowest for eight months. Growth in demand for staff in the Midlands was weaker than the national average. Softer decline in permanent candidate numbers The Midlands saw a further reduction in the supply of permanent candidates during November, though the rate of decrease slowed to the softest since May. Anecdotal evidence suggested that people currently in work were reluctant to move at present given higher levels of uncertainty. At the national level, the reduction in the availability of permanent staff was than quicker that seen in the Midlands. Recruitment consultancies indicated that temporary candidate numbers decreased at a rapid pace in November. The pace of reduction slowed for the third month in a row to reach the softest for six months. A number of respondents indicated that Brexit and tax legislation changes had contributed to a lack of available staff for temp roles. The fall in temp staff availability was the least marked of the four monitored English regions, however. Permanent salaries rise at record rate for the second month in a row Permanent salaries for new joiners in the Midlands increased at the fastest pace in the survey’s history in November, with the rate of inflation surpassing the previous record set in October. A combination of rising demand for staff and a lack of suitable candidates was behind the increase in permanent salaries. The rise in permanent salaries in the Midlands was the sharpest of the four English regions covered. As was the case with permanent starting salaries, pay rates for temporary staff rose sharply during November. The rate of inflation was the strongest since the survey began in October 1997. Recruitment consultancies indicated that candidate supply shortages had been the principal factor leading to higher pay rates. Moreover, the increase in the Midlands was the quickest of the four monitored English regions. Commenting on the latest survey results, Kate Holt, People Consulting Partner at KPMG, said: “The rate of sustained salary growth across the region suggests that the war on talent shows no signs of abating as businesses continue to look for people with the right skills. “The demand and supply imbalance, however, is not going to change overnight, and while January typically is a busier month for jobseekers, it won’t tackle the bigger issue, which is essentially skills. If we address this issue, then pressures will begin to ease, but effort is required of all to look at how to identify and maximise on transferable skills, as well as upskilling and reskilling.” Neil Carberry, Chief Executive at the REC, said: “Today’s figures emphasise again how far we have come this year – it is certainly a great Christmas if you’re looking for a job. This is always the busiest part of the year for recruiters, but demand for new staff across the autumn has been exceptional. “Because of this high demand, starting salaries and temp rates continue to rise, making it even more attractive to be looking for a new opportunity in 2022. Hiring companies will need to make sure they get their offer right – not just on pay – and take an inclusive approach if they are to avoid losing out. “It’s too early to tell what the effect of the Omicron variant might be on the labour market – December may be slower than previous months as its effects feed through. Hospitality will be in the forefront of any changes as we approach the festive season, of course, and the impact of high inflation will also be felt as purses tighten in January. “But the broader outlook is more positive for candidates, suggesting that the labour market will remain tight for some time to come. This will put a premium on skills development, and the flexibility to hire overseas when necessary. These two issues will be critical ones for the government to address next year – both levelling up and delivering a global Britain rely on them.”

Nottingham is one of the first places in the UK to benefit from BT’s new digital street units, with the first one in the city unveiled in Canal Street today. BT is donating up to £7.5 million of outdoor advertising space to small businesses across the UK, as part of its roll-out of new Street Hub 2.0 units – which help build the UK’s digital infrastructure and include services such as an emergency call button, rapid mobile device charging and ultrafast Wi-Fi. Local businesses in Nottingham are also being given the chance to advertise for free on the new Street Hub units, with nominations open now. BT is calling on local businesses and the public to nominate local firms who could benefit from the offer. The launch comes as a recent BT study found that more than 60 per cent of small businesses agree that local advertising would help to increase awareness of their business, with 40 per cent saying it would encourage more people to shop at their local high street. However, almost half (49 per cent) said that cost was a major obstacle to them investing in local Out Of Home (OOH) advertising. BT is now taking action to remove one of the biggest barriers to adoption, with the Street Hub’s digital advertising screens designed to help small firms attract more customers following the local and national lockdowns. Street Hubs can also help to enhance digital connectivity and services for communities through features including charity helplines, and local wayfinding via an integrated tablet. A further three of the new Street Hub units will be rolled out in the first phase of the rollout across Nottingham in the coming months. Councillor Rebecca Langton, Portfolio Holder for Skills, Growth and Economic Development at Nottingham City Council, said: “We’re excited to see BT investing in these new Street Hubs and providing small businesses with an opportunity to raise their profiles in Nottingham city centre. The hubs, which contribute to Wi-Fi coverage in the city centre and offer information and mobile charging points, will benefit residents and visitors to Nottingham, and this will further support small and independent businesses who play such an important role in making Nottingham city centre a great place to socialise safely.” Sarah Walker, Director for BT’s Enterprise business in the Midlands, said: “BT has been supporting the recovery and growth of small businesses throughout the pandemic – and we’re moving up a gear as many prepare for one of the busiest times of the year. We hope that, by gifting free digital advertising space via our new Street Hub units, we can give small businesses in Nottingham an extra boost as high streets spring back to life. Our new Street Hub units can play a vital role in helping small firms to bounce back – whether that’s through building greater awareness of their business through free advertising, or by rejuvenating the high street by boosting local digital infrastructure.” Kirsty Hole, Director of 101 Vintage, an independent vintage and used clothing store in Nottingham, said: “We’re a small independent shop, founded by two women, that opened our doors in September in the heart of Nottingham. One of our biggest challenges right now is connecting with customers and letting them know that we’re here. The power of local advertising is so important for us as a new small business, but Out-of-Home advertising felt completely out of reach at this early stage of our journey. The opportunity to have our name in lights on the new BT Street Hubs to let the local community know that we’re here, and open, is the perfect solution.” The new digital units can also help local councils achieve their social and economic improvement and sustainability goals. With Nottingham City Council aiming to be carbon neutral by 2028, each Street Hub 2.0 unit can be fitted with air quality and CO2 sensors. This will provide local councils with the insight needed to help them take action to improve air quality, contributing to the health and wellbeing of local people. BT’s latest study also revealed that around two thirds (66 per cent) of local businesses think that mobile connectivity could be improved in their local community, to help them work faster and smarter. BT’s new Street Hub 2.0 units will enhance local digital infrastructure by including the option to install mini mobile masts or ‘small cells’ on the structure to further boost 4G and 5G coverage in the local area. Subject to local planning processes, BT is aiming to roll out around 300 of its new Street Hub 2.0 units across the UK in the next 12 months, working closely with local councils and communities.

Over 200 employers have been named and shamed by government for failing to pay their lowest paid staff the minimum wage. The 208 employers were found to have failed to pay their workers £1.2 million in a clear breach of National Minimum Wage (NMW) law, leaving around 12,000 workers out of pocket. Companies named range from multinational businesses and large high street names to SMEs and sole traders. These businesses have since had to pay back what they owe to staff and also face significant financial penalties of up to 200% of what was owed, which are paid to the government. The investigations by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs concluded between 2014 and 2019. Minister for Labour Markets Paul Scully said: “We want workers to know that we’re on their side and they must be treated fairly by their employers, which is why paying the legal minimum wage should be non-negotiable for businesses. “Today’s 208 businesses, whatever their size, should know better than to short-change hard-working employees, regardless of whether it was intentional or not. With Christmas fast approaching, it’s more important than ever that cash is not withheld from the pockets of workers. So don’t be a scrooge – pay your staff properly.” The employers named previously underpaid workers in the following ways:

• 37% – deductions that reduce minimum wage pay, for example workers out of pocket to comply with the dress code
• 29% – unpaid working time such as mandatory training, trial shifts or travel time
• 16% – failing to pay the correct rate to apprentices
• 11% – not increasing NMW pay in line with government rises, or paying the wrong minimum wage rate, for example paying a 23 year old the 21-22 year old rate

The firms in our region are: Magnum Care Limited, Leicester, LE1, failed to pay £22,711.44 to 174 workers. Yarr Ltd (active proposal to strike off), trading as Maryland Chicken, Leicester, LE5 , failed to pay £21,089.55 to 16 workers. House of Fraser Limited (under new ownership), Bolsover, NG20, failed to pay £16,235.19 to 354 workers. Greencore Food To Go Limited, Bolsover, S43, failed to pay £12,022.24 to 602 workers. L & M(Heating)Supplies Limited, North Northamptonshire, NN10, failed to pay £9,963.60 to 7 workers. Goldie Hotels (3) Limited, trading as Hallmark Hotels, Derby, DE1, failed to pay £9,335.76 to 59 workers. Nourish Training Ltd, trading as CSP Recruitment, Leicester, LE1, failed to pay £9,262.27 to 81 workers. Blue Chilli Thai 2012 Ltd, Mansfield, NG18, failed to pay £9,103.22 to 1 worker. Quad Joinery Contractors Limited, Gedling, NG4, failed to pay £7,223.25 to 1 worker. Inverhome Limited, trading as Morton Grange Nursery, North East Derbyshire, DE55, failed to pay £6,970.95 to 35 workers. Hand Car Wash Centre Ltd (under new ownership), Boston, PE21, failed to pay £6,622.38 to 4 workers. Mr Robin Swain & Mrs Andrea Swain, trading as Seacroft Mobility, East Lindsey, PE24, failed to pay £4,843.56 to 13 workers. Guy Bacon Electrical Limited – Dissolved 13th October 2020, Charnwood, LE7, failed to pay £3,673.92 to 1 worker. Muzzy Foods Ltd (active proposal to strike off), trading as Maryland Chicken, Leicester, LE1, failed to pay £3,243.71 to 6 workers. Muciqi HCW Ltd ACTIVE (active proposal to strike off), trading as Muciqi Hand Car Wash, Newark and Sherwood, NG24, failed to pay £3,104.64 to 17 workers. Blagreaves Hand Car Wash Limited, Derby, DE23, failed to pay £2,824.95 to 3 workers. Apparel Trading Ltd, Leicester, LE5, failed to pay £2,671.01 to 51 workers. B & S Decorators Limited, North Northamptonshire, NN14, failed to pay £2,055 to 1 worker. Leicester Motors Limited, Leicester, LE5, failed to pay £1,981.21 to 2 workers. Mr Martyn Young, trading as Martyn Young Heating & Plumbing, Amber Valley, DE56, failed to pay £1,868.12 to 1 worker. Hollywood Nails 104 Ltd, Bassetlaw, S80, failed to pay £1,365.45 to 3 workers. Namara Foods Ltd, trading as Maryland Chicken, Leicester, LE4, failed to pay £1,135.35 to 6 workers. Taylors Service Garages (Boston) Limited, Boston, PE21, failed to pay £1,110.74 to 3 workers. Lincolnshire Quality Care Services Ltd, North East Lincolnshire, DN31, failed to pay £1,006.72 to 54 workers. Hope House School Limited, Newark and Sherwood, NG24, failed to pay £829.49 to 1 worker. Pendragon PLC, Ashfield, NG15, failed to pay £779.11 to 1 worker. Same Day 2 Go Limited – Liquidation, North Northamptonshire, NN8, failed to pay £742.14 to 2 workers. Somercotes Stars Pre-school, East Lindsey, LN11, failed to pay £632.88 to 1 worker. C & C Inns Limited, trading as The Chequers Inn, South Kesteven, NG32, failed to pay £562.55 to 1 worker. Nethercote House Limited, (previously trading as CAPULET SPA LIMITED), Derby, DE22, failed to pay £529.88 to 1 worker.